2019 is done and over, and what a year we had. The S&P 500 was up around 28%!!!!
The year started with a whole bunch of anxiety and the threats of trade wars because of tariffs. Well, the trade wars never happened, and the tariffs with China seem to be causing positive change.
However, that is so old news. Now we have a spitting contest going on between us and Iran. And our media loves nothing better than a new crisis to talk about.
Crisis? Hmm, back to triggers in a moment.
We remain in a very strong economy, and thus far, a very strong bull market. The themes that have dominated for the last several years, continue to dominate today, this is still a Growth Style, US dominated market. This will not persist forever, it never does, but that is what we have for now and we will continue to ride this horse until it falters. At some point, leadership in the markets will rotate. Rotate away from Growth, away form the US, or any combination thereof.
The good news, is that our technical indicators will show this happening, and that is what will cause us to make changes in the portfolios that we manage with discretion, and the 401k fund recommendations we make to those that have subscribed.
It seems that some event happens, totally out of the blue, that becomes the Trigger that causes the market to violently correct. In 2000 it was the Y2K crisis that never happened and the subsequent lack of spending on technology, which was followed by the attack on Manhattan that put us into recession. In 2007, it was an accounting rule change by FASB (Federal Accounting Standards Board) that caused liquidity issues in our banking system.
Where will that next Trigger come from? I do not know. I have been a part of this industry since 1983 and every year there has been at least one crisis that caused fear and people to ask “is this the next trigger???”, and it almost never is. However, I am not in the forecasting business. I am in the River Navigating business and we can only see to the next bend in that river, and right now, all is clear.
My forecast for 2020, listen closely, this almost never happens. What I see happening this year are several quick and dirty corrections, we will get through the elections, and then end up with a modestly positive year.
That is based solely on my gut and now 37 years of market experience.
That and a nickel, well, $3 now, will get you a cup of coffee………..
Thank you for your continued Trust and Confidence.
Gregory G. Riggs, CFP
Accredited Investment Fiduciary
Securities and Advisory Services offered through KMS Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/ SIPC
This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice. This information is for educational purposes only.